Numerous cases have been documented globally as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan. In India, 56,342 positive cases have been reported as of May 8th, 2020. India, home to over 1.34 billion people and the second-largest population in the world, will struggle to stop the spread of the coronavirus 2 associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome. The current outbreak would require a variety of approaches, including the quick creation of a new therapy as well as computational modeling, statistical techniques, and quantitative assessments to control the spread.
The Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has made people aware of the current outbreak and has taken the required steps to stop COVID-19 from spreading. To do this, the federal and state governments are taking a number of actions and creating a number of wartime protocols. In addition, the Indian government imposed a 55-day nationwide lockdown beginning on March 25, 2020, to stop the spread of the illness. This outbreak is intrinsically tied to the country's economy since it has severely hampered industrial sectors and because individuals around the world are currently reluctant to conduct business in the affected areas.
Indian Situation Right Now
The coronavirus illness (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was initially discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and afterwards spread to many other regions. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded 3,759,967 positive COVID-19 cases as of May 8th, 2020, and the number of deaths related to COVID-19 had reached 259,474 globally. More than 212 nations and territories have now received official confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The WHO designated COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020.
On January 30, 2020, Kerala, a state in India, reported the country's first SARS-CoV-2 positive case. The number of instances thereafter sharply increased. The National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, and an associated testing laboratory received a total of 14,37,788 suspicious samples, according to a news statement issued by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on May 8th, 2020. 56,342 of them had SARS-CoV-2 positive test results. Table 1 lists the states in which positive cases have occurred up until May 8, 2020, and a map of India shows where the instances have occurred (Figure 1).
More than 1,393,301 travelers have been examined for SARS-CoV-2 at Indian airports, with 111 positive cases among foreign nationals. Recently, about 197,192 Indians have been repatriated from afflicted areas (4, 5). Maharashtra, Delhi, and Gujarat states were listed as COVID-19 epicenters as of May 8th, 2020, with 17,974, 5,980, and 7,012 confirmed cases, respectively. In India, 1,886 fatalities have been documented, and 16,540 people have made a full recovery. The "Janata curfew" (14-hour lockdown) was imposed on March 22, 2020, to create social distance.
On March 25th, 2020, a new lockdown for 21 days began. It was then prolonged until May 3rd, 2020, but due to an increase of positive cases, the lockdown has now been extended a third time, this time until May 17th, 2020. In India, 26 states and 6 union territories have recorded COVID-19 instances out of the country's 32 states and 8 union territories. As of May 4th, 2020, the health ministry has additionally designated 130 districts as hotspot zones or red zones, 284 as orange zones (with few SARS-CoV-2 infections), and 319 as green zones (with no SARS-CoV-2 infection).
These hotspot areas are where more than 80% of cases nationwide are reported, according to research. Hotspot districts include 19 districts in Uttar Pradesh, followed by 14 and 12 districts in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, respectively. In these confinement zones, total lockdown was put into place to halt or reduce community transmission. 310 public laboratories and 111 commercial laboratories across the nation were conducting SARS-CoV-2 testing as of May 8th, 2020. According to the ICMR study, 14,37,788 samples have been tested thus far, or 1.04 per 1,000 people.
Table 1
Current status of reported positive coronavirus
disease cases in India (State-wise).
FIGURE 1: A map of India showing the
distribution of positive coronavirus
illness cases by state.
Previous Coronavirus Outbreaks and COVID-19
The recent Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and COVID-19 epidemics in numerous nations are comparable to the earlier outbreaks of SARS and MERS that appeared in China and Saudi Arabia in 2003 and 2012, respectively (8–10). Both SARS and COVID-19 are respiratory illnesses brought on by the coronavirus; they have a significant impact on disease outbreaks globally and damage the respiratory system. SARS-CoV is the cause of SARS, whereas COVID-19 is brought on by SARS-CoV-2. SARS and COVID-19 have no specific treatments available as of yet. There is some data that suggests SARS-CoV-2, despite being a novel member of the coronavirus family, is similar to the human coronavirus HKU1 and 229E strains in the ongoing fight against COVID-19 (11, 12). According to these reports, people lack protection to this virus, which makes it easy and quick for human populations to contract it through contact with an infected person. More people can contract SARS-CoV-2 than SARS-CoV. The viral load (quantity of virus) tends to be relatively higher in COVID-19-positive patients, especially in the nose and throat right after they begin to experience symptoms, and the binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 to host cell receptors is higher than that of SARS-CoV, according to two potential causes: I (13, 14). Table 2 lists the further comparisons between SARS and COVID-19, and this page includes sources supporting those comparisons (1, 15, 16).
COVID-19's effects on India and the world economy
India is preparing for the COVID-19 outbreak in accordance with official government directives, but failing to take certain crisis measures or underestimating their significance may have very serious repercussions. India's surrounding nations have all reported COVID-19 positive cases. The Indian government has established health checkpoints between the country's borders to determine whether persons entering the country have the deadly virus in order to defend against it (17). For citizens trying to re-enter their home countries from China, various nations have implemented rescue operations and surveillance measures.
The first lesson from the SARS pandemic was that China's standing abroad and its economic development were harmed by the lack of clarity and knowledge about SARS (10, 18–20). Health care and medical systems have changed as a result of China's tragic SARS outbreak (18, 20). India appears to have significantly less capacity to fight off a pandemic than China does. According to a recent study, infected family members had not visited the Wuhan market in China, raising the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could spread undetected (21). This behaviour, according to researchers, is typical for many viruses. India, which has the second-largest population in the world with around 1.34 billion people, would have trouble treating severe COVID-19 cases because it only has 49,000 ventilators, which is a pitiful number. It would be catastrophic for India if the number of COVID-19 cases increased across the country (22). Finding the sources of an infection and individuals who come into contact with them would be challenging. This would need for a variety of epidemic management techniques, such as computational modeling as well as statistical and quantitative analytics, to quickly create novel vaccinations and medication treatments.
India's medical system is woefully insufficient for its enormous population. According to a study, India's insufficient medical care systems cause roughly 1 million deaths annually (23). India also conducts business with nations that are close by, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, Myanmar, China, and Nepal. Only 1.56% of India's $769 billion in overall world trade value was made up of its almost $12 billion in regional trade during the fiscal year 2017–18 (FY2017–18). Such virus outbreaks and their spread will have a major impact on the Indian economy. Given that trade ports with China are now blocked, the epidemic in China might have a significant impact on the Indian economy, particularly in the electronics, pharmaceutical, and logistics industries. Suyash Choudhary, Head—Fixed Income, IDFC AMC, stated that GDP may decline due to COVID-19, which provided more evidence for this (24).
When compared to the effects of SARS in 2003, economists anticipate that the economic impact of COVID-19 will be significant and adverse. For instance, compared to visitors who visited during the 2003 SARS outbreak season, it has been projected that the number of tourists coming in China was significantly higher. This demonstrates how COVID-19 has an impact on the travel and tourism sector. According to estimates, the amount of passengers traveling by train and by road fell by 57 and 45%, respectively, as a result of SARS (25).
In addition, global economies now are considerably more interconnected than they were 15 years ago. According to estimates, COVID-19 will have a negative influence on oil prices and emerging market currencies (26–28). From the standpoint of the retail sector, consumer savings appear to be substantial. Given that all supply chains are likely to be impacted, this might have a negative influence on consumption rates. This would then have an impact on supply when compared to demand for various vital product items (29).
This demonstrates unequivocally that we cannot now assess the impact of COVID-19 based on the estimated losses resulting from the effect of SARS on tourism (retail sales decreased by approximately USD 12–18 billion, and USD 30-100 billion was lost at a worldwide macroeconomic level). This won't be achievable until COVID-19's spread is completely contained. Any estimates made before that point will be fairly vague and approximate (19). Briefing reports on the OECD Interim Economic Assessment have highlighted China's contribution to the global supply chain and commodity markets. The nations that are most vulnerable to negative repercussions are Japan, South Korea, and Australia because of their close relations to China.
According to estimates, car sales have decreased by 20%, accounting for 10% of China's monthly loss in January 2020. This demonstrates how COVID-19 has impacted all forms of industrial production. Thus far, a number of factors have been identified as having a significant economic impact, including labor mobility, a lack of working hours, disruptions in the global supply chain, decreased consumption and tourism, and decreased global demand for commodities (30), all of which need to be properly analyzed by industry type. Corporate executives must put consumer demand demands above supply chain and product line trends.
In the middle of numerous discussions on a sustainable economy prior to the impact of COVID-19, the International Monetary Fund has recently forecasted that India's GDP will drop from 5.8% for the FY21 to 1.9%. As a result of the financial crisis brought on by the global standstill, which has a negative impact on many businesses and the global supply chain, the GDP for FY20, which was earlier expected to be 4.8%, has decreased to 4.2%. However, it has been broadly predicted that among other big economies, China and India will have significant positive growth (31).
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